Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-09 12.925053 14.800289 16.822509 19.161635 21.788951 24.644916 27.980487
2025-03-16 9.964211 12.456771 15.356171 18.963071 23.313732 28.375195 34.691361
2025-03-23 8.584421 11.353704 14.734082 19.136039 24.685619 31.415700 40.157358
2025-03-30 7.714955 10.724438 14.556877 19.749993 26.551089 35.096644 46.579378
2025-04-06 6.757094 9.824291 13.881446 19.577100 27.291197 37.289544 51.126455
2025-04-13 5.700863 8.657488 12.714359 18.605869 26.844000 37.838788 53.481051
2025-04-20 5.267178 8.303900 12.603355 19.029447 28.260275 40.885975 59.267044
2025-04-27 4.878577 7.967742 12.472185 19.388030 29.573700 43.824476 65.014882
2025-05-04 4.417597 7.471018 12.054225 19.278362 30.179669 45.769322 69.427328
2025-05-11 3.976004 6.957319 11.560220 19.002159 30.497529 47.284743 73.258912
2025-05-18 3.659223 6.610544 11.288444 19.031958 31.253585 49.447794 78.102241
2025-05-25 3.415577 6.359482 11.142641 19.237311 32.272554 52.027655 83.654842
2025-06-01 3.152152 6.056533 10.898373 19.281502 33.063023 54.334294 88.962961
2025-06-08 2.870175 5.694012 10.525801 19.086181 33.453668 56.037663 93.419946
2025-06-15 2.682814 5.481363 10.385620 19.258661 34.433697 58.683855 99.430091
2025-06-22 2.584025 5.422485 10.505267 19.876667 36.176517 62.610684 107.622942
2025-06-29 2.373361 5.130108 10.185707 19.702600 36.563861 64.351350 112.359191
2025-07-06 2.071471 4.628979 9.445996 18.725821 35.506692 63.656243 113.071220
2025-07-13 1.984187 4.549382 9.481140 19.151828 36.914488 67.115153 120.775158
2025-07-20 1.894825 4.456660 9.482973 19.512487 38.218290 70.444222 128.381170
2025-07-27 1.757072 4.248317 9.244393 19.402185 38.660138 72.306869 133.561159
2025-08-03 1.612909 4.011568 8.930714 19.124388 38.773432 73.593519 137.788031
2025-08-10 1.512848 3.862443 8.781343 19.154359 39.454671 75.896836 143.856391